Global warming projections under fossil fuels depletion

Chiari Luca, Dipartimento di Fisica, Università di Trento.

A few recent papers dealt with the projections of future climate change starting from emissions scenarios accounting for the ongoing exhaustion of fossil fuels. Here we show a new assessment of the future increase of the atmospheric CO2 concentration yielding a new estimate of the global temperature at the end of this century. The present evaluation underpins the assumption that fossil fuels will be exploited at a rate controlled by economic and technological constraints only, even though limited by the geological availability.